Nobody was mistaken in
Brussels and The Hague regardless of whether the necessary quorum (30%) for the
elections to be valid has been reached as to accuracy, regardless of whether
the vote itself is only advisory and that participation is only 32% according
to the latest estimates: the overwhelming victory of the "no" (61.1%,
according to exit surveys from polling stations) to the Dutch referendum on the
Association agreement between the European Union (EU) and Ukraine, Wednesday,
April 6, is more bad news for Europe.
This is a test, frankly
negative, less than a hundred days now the referendum on the
"Brexit", the output from the UK to the EU, the outcome of which
paralyzes all pro-Europeans for months.
The Dutch vote also could weaken the foreign policy vis-à-vis Russia Union, opposed the deal between Kiev and Brussels, many commentators read it as a symbolic victory for Vladimir Putin.
The Dutch vote also could weaken the foreign policy vis-à-vis Russia Union, opposed the deal between Kiev and Brussels, many commentators read it as a symbolic victory for Vladimir Putin.
Why the Dutch were voting?
The referendum on the association agreement between the EU and Ukraine comes from an unlikely coalition of intellectuals and citizens gathered around the GeenStijl website ("no style"), who say they want to "shoot the alarm signal and channel the discontent of a population concerned about the megalomania of European leaders."
In the summer of 2015, they seized the opportunity of a new Dutch law on popular initiatives, which took effect in June, and gathered 480,000 signatures, more than the 300,000 required.
By their own admission, the Association Agreement with Ukraine is only a pretext. The next step is a referendum on the "Nexit", the output of the Netherlands to the EU...
The referendum on the association agreement between the EU and Ukraine comes from an unlikely coalition of intellectuals and citizens gathered around the GeenStijl website ("no style"), who say they want to "shoot the alarm signal and channel the discontent of a population concerned about the megalomania of European leaders."
In the summer of 2015, they seized the opportunity of a new Dutch law on popular initiatives, which took effect in June, and gathered 480,000 signatures, more than the 300,000 required.
By their own admission, the Association Agreement with Ukraine is only a pretext. The next step is a referendum on the "Nexit", the output of the Netherlands to the EU...
What will be the consequences for the agreement between
the EU and Ukraine?
Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, remained cautious on Wednesday night, but the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, whose government had campaigned for the 'yes', admitted that his country's ratification of the Treaty between the EU and Ukraine, suspended by the referendum, would no longer obvious.
"If the result is 'no', we will consider this advice carefully. It means a political fact, namely that ratification cannot simply take its course, "Has he said.
Wednesday's vote could weaken the association agreement with Ukraine. No short-term: this agreement, which has treaty status and has a big commercial but also political aspects, has already been ratified by the European Parliament and the 27 other EU countries. And entered into "temporary" force so on 1 January 2016.
But the "temporary" cannot last forever. If The Hague does not ratify the treaty, in turn, it may be challenged before the Court of Justice of the European Union, it is feared in Brussels;
Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, remained cautious on Wednesday night, but the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, whose government had campaigned for the 'yes', admitted that his country's ratification of the Treaty between the EU and Ukraine, suspended by the referendum, would no longer obvious.
"If the result is 'no', we will consider this advice carefully. It means a political fact, namely that ratification cannot simply take its course, "Has he said.
Wednesday's vote could weaken the association agreement with Ukraine. No short-term: this agreement, which has treaty status and has a big commercial but also political aspects, has already been ratified by the European Parliament and the 27 other EU countries. And entered into "temporary" force so on 1 January 2016.
But the "temporary" cannot last forever. If The Hague does not ratify the treaty, in turn, it may be challenged before the Court of Justice of the European Union, it is feared in Brussels;
What will the impact of this vote in Europe?
The European Council President Donald Tusk has "taken note" on Thursday, the non-Dutch voters, and said he wants to "continue [its] contacts" with Mark Rutte on the subject: "I need hear what conclusions he and his government will take the referendum and what its intentions "
In January, the Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, warned that a "no" could lead to "a continental crisis" ... Thursday, he said he was "sad", according to a spokesman. As for the consequences of the vote, "he now belongs primarily to the Dutch government to analyze the results and decide what to do."
However, the extreme right rejoiced: on Twitter, the leader of the Dutch far right Geert Wilders said a vote of "no confidence in the elites in Brussels and The Hague" which is "the beginning the end of the EU ".
Marine Le Pen praised his ally in the European Parliament and hailed "a step towards a Europe of Nations".
Such a signal is even more damaging for Europe that comes from one of the six founding countries of the Union, known for his liberal values, looking to the west and the English-speaking world, which had already voted "no" to the European Constitution in 2005. A country that, until the end of June, the rotating presidency of the Union;
The European Council President Donald Tusk has "taken note" on Thursday, the non-Dutch voters, and said he wants to "continue [its] contacts" with Mark Rutte on the subject: "I need hear what conclusions he and his government will take the referendum and what its intentions "
In January, the Commission President, Jean-Claude Juncker, warned that a "no" could lead to "a continental crisis" ... Thursday, he said he was "sad", according to a spokesman. As for the consequences of the vote, "he now belongs primarily to the Dutch government to analyze the results and decide what to do."
However, the extreme right rejoiced: on Twitter, the leader of the Dutch far right Geert Wilders said a vote of "no confidence in the elites in Brussels and The Hague" which is "the beginning the end of the EU ".
Marine Le Pen praised his ally in the European Parliament and hailed "a step towards a Europe of Nations".
Such a signal is even more damaging for Europe that comes from one of the six founding countries of the Union, known for his liberal values, looking to the west and the English-speaking world, which had already voted "no" to the European Constitution in 2005. A country that, until the end of June, the rotating presidency of the Union;
On Twitter, commentators in
favor of the "yes" also highlighted the paradox of a negative vote,
while the Netherlands have experienced the drama of the flight MH17, shot down
in July 2014 over Ukraine by a missile from pro-Russian areas. More than 190
Dutch passengers were killed.
In December 2015, the Danes had voted in a referendum against police cooperation with the rest of the Europeans. The question was almost incomprehensible, but already this vote was interpreted as a "no" to the EU.
"This new vote proves how the discomfort is great, how the Union does not inspire confidence," says a European diplomat.
In fact, with the attacks, the migration crisis that has updated its deep divisions, the EU gives the image of a political construction down, unable to provide security and economic prosperity to its citizens. And many in Brussels fear that, in the state of weakness in which she is, she cannot resist the blast of a "Brexit".
In December 2015, the Danes had voted in a referendum against police cooperation with the rest of the Europeans. The question was almost incomprehensible, but already this vote was interpreted as a "no" to the EU.
"This new vote proves how the discomfort is great, how the Union does not inspire confidence," says a European diplomat.
In fact, with the attacks, the migration crisis that has updated its deep divisions, the EU gives the image of a political construction down, unable to provide security and economic prosperity to its citizens. And many in Brussels fear that, in the state of weakness in which she is, she cannot resist the blast of a "Brexit".
How will the Dutch government to cope?
Rutte may try to negotiate an additional protocol to the Agreement, to save the country some of its aspects. Or require the addition of statements responding to concerns of supporters of the "no" (the fight against corruption, etc.), suggests Aaron Matta, researcher of the think tank The Hague Institute for Global Justice.
"The important point is that just a more manageable crisis," lamented a Brussels diplomatic source said Wednesday.
Rutte may try to negotiate an additional protocol to the Agreement, to save the country some of its aspects. Or require the addition of statements responding to concerns of supporters of the "no" (the fight against corruption, etc.), suggests Aaron Matta, researcher of the think tank The Hague Institute for Global Justice.
"The important point is that just a more manageable crisis," lamented a Brussels diplomatic source said Wednesday.
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