Friday, 4 November 2016

BREATHLESSNESS THAT THE MOZAMBIQUE ECONOMY IS SUBJECT




At a conference on investment held this week in Maputo, the Minister of Economy and Finance Maleiane made revelations that show the level of "breathlessness"Given the difficulty in paying wages, cuts in overtime pay and higher costs on view, he was asked if not equated demonstrations, as happened in 2010. From Adriano Maleiane response came a sincere but disturbing reality: "For 2016, I ask the patience of Mozambicans, will suffer even more. In 2017, we will continue to make efforts. "
Maleiane strengthened the argument of recovery stating that, within the current context, the government has established priorities, although today depend only on which charges on taxes. And those priorities in this difficult phase, including the salary of employees, payment of pensioners, and what is left is applied in some investments.
"I hope that Mozambicans understand that even the question of cutting the overtime that are complaining in the past has always been so. It is always recognized, but for cash flow problems, you may not pay at that time. So it's a difficult situation, "acknowledged the official, while reinforced the appeal for people to not manifest in the rising cost of living. But thanks for the fact that this has not yet happened, "I have to congratulate the Mozambican people to have realized that the situation has changed in April here: we do not have support from partners, especially for the state budget, and we have the consequences watched , which are inflation and the exchange rate shooting. I wish to congratulate the Mozambican people to understand that when we do not, who really suffer is us. "
Treasury management: a fiscal tightening

Because of the suspension of external support to the budget, the minister explained, that the government is using what is known as cash management since April this year, that is making "great efforts" to collect taxes for undertake expenditures and its important indicator called net credit to the Government, that is, you cannot make public expenditure when there is no money in the bank. "That's what's happening now," said the minister, explaining that this is why the executive works to bring back the confidence of donors and creditors of Mozambique, for financial injections again to flow quickly. An example is the ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the condition for restoring the aid program is to audit the debts issue "properly directed". The second condition is the submission of a strategy on how will restore stability to the economy when inflation and exchange are beyond control. The dampening was the recent explanation that Maleiane Minister himself presented to creditors in London, England.
State of the economy

In radiography way, the Minister of Economy and Finance revealed that in 2015, the international market did not favor exports because prices of export products fell; Internally, Mozambique is cyclically affected by natural disasters. This and other factors led to the fall of the Gross Domestic Product growth rate (GDP), value of all the wealth produced in the country, to 6.3%.

Already in 2016, the year the problems were extended and the initial forecast of GDP growth at 7%, there was a new provision in the amending budget, which indicated an increase of 4.5%. In September, the government returned to lower forecasts for 3.7%, still a conditioned growth to reach agreement to end the political and military tension, which is not succeed, it may be even lower.

Allied to this, the country faces a currency depreciation of the metical against the US dollar, which was accentuated in April this year, due to the sudden drop in foreign exchange to feed the market, to which is added the sharp rise in inflation ( general price level), which had a normal rhythm.
According to the Minister of Economy and Finance, inflation was also influenced by the conveyed information to the debts that the government had to hit because investor expectations have changed. That is, people were waiting there were no currency in the market. With this, the exchange rate went up, and all the prices were the same behavior. Another aspect that has driven prices to shoot was the intensification of political and military tension, from the beginning of this year.
Tightness in the treasury without increasing taxes

the minister explained that is to revisit the agenda to stimulate domestic production, not to prioritize tax increase mechanisms. But the Government believes that there is much that can be done in the specific duty and there is still much to do to mobilize people to pay, because at this time, there is an average of 14 million economically active persons, but only 4.4 million is to have the Single Tax identification number (NUIT). And the universe of companies, only 81,000 are in the system. "So there is much work to be done and we can get revenue," said Adriano Maleiane.
International Movement asks creditors not to block or cut the debt of Mozambique

After Mozambique declare unsustainability of the debt of public companies, the risk that hangs in the air and the fear of seeing the country fall into a more acute financial crisis led global movement Jubilee Debt Campaign (JDC), headquartered in the UK, to launch an international appeal for the creditors to not block the process of renegotiation of the debt that the Mozambican government wants to start.

The appeal comes after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have been in Maputo in September to define the terms of an international and independent audit of public companies that hid loans validated by the state in the amount of 1 400 million dollars, equivalent to 10.7% of GDP. The investigation will cover the Mozambican Company Tuna (Ematum) Proindicus and Mozambique asset Management (MAM).

The JDC, a movement in defense of public debt of developing countries, claims that the "scandal" of the hidden debts began in London because the debt Ematum and loans made to the other two companies by the Swiss investment bank Credit Suisse and the Russian bank VTB "are all under English law."
A position taken this week, the director of the JDC, Sarah-Jayne Clifton, quoted by Lusa, argues that it is necessary to activate mechanisms in the UK for large institutions and creditor’s investment funds do not resort to the British courts with the aim of halting renegotiation.

"It is immoral to all those who lent money or bought debt low may now gain from the crisis. Mozambique needs to restructure the debt and we urgently need legal changes in the UK to prevent creditors and vulture funds to block the process, "he maintained.

According to the "Guardian", the organization claims that the government of Theresa May extend the effects of a 2010 law that protects countries this type of action, but which currently only applies to secured debts before 2004.
Consolidation fiscal

It is necessary to impose discipline in finance and is what is being done: pick up all that is debt, everything is how to spend, and put discipline. If you look in 2014, the level of expenditure was 42% of GDP. Today, we are down and we are at 31% of GDP. Unfortunately, in countries such as Mozambique, these measures, in the short term, they can bring down the GDP. We are now putting together the whole scheme to increase tax collection. "
Diversification of the economy

we are launching the idea to society that it is not necessary to wait for natural gas. We have to consider this sector as something to add. For example, in agriculture, we did not have to depend on imports of basic products. Just to have an idea, 42% of the weight in the calculation of inflation are food products. Energy, this country can, in short time, add another 5000 MW and of these export more than 2000; we have business tourism; infrastructure, it is necessary to enhance the corridors of South, Central and North, specializing Mozambique as a country server from neighboring countries and ensure access to rural markets, to boost agriculture.
Financing source

here is the question that arises: where is the money to implement this thought? I bet on Public-Private Partnerships (PPP)
Saisi!

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